The percentage return should give an indication of how successful the strategy is. If the results of a trader’s backtesting strategy are undesirable, or if a trader wanted to check another strategy or variation, you can simply repeat the steps above. A trader may wish to calculate their average risk/reward ratio over all trades to see if the strategy is worth it.
Although backtesting may show how a trading strategy performed in the past, it cannot guarantee a strategy’s future performance. For this reason, backtesting could be a useful tool but it should not be exclusively relied on. Traders can also ‘forward test’ their strategies in live market conditions to see if they work in real time, without basing them purely on historical data
When I started trading I used the backtesting method to see what worked more often than not. I researched different markets, different time frames, how this played out around news ect. Backtesting is, in my opinion, very important, for a few reasons. First, it gives you some historic insight into how this HAVE played out…
which in term should offer some comfort on HOW things could possibly work out in the future. There are no guarantees on anything, but the historical data you’ll come to appreciate should also uncover future probability levels. Second, (i’m not going to keep counting after this) by back testing and understanding historical data you’re offered a theoretical framework on how things might work out in the future. This will allow you to calculate simple things like: how long will it take to double my account? What type of annual returns could I possibly relize? What happens if I use leverage? (which I don’t endorse, but I’m just saying).
The point is backtesting is important if you’re a new(er) trader or if you’re an experienced trader that is interested in a new strategy. Back testing will give you some very interesting data to work with. When It comes to back testing there are a few different ways that you can approach this topic. The first one is you jump into the deepend, solo, and try to figued out what it is you’re looking for…I don;t suggest this because this way of doing things could take ages…like literally, years!
The other more effeint way, is to get into a situation where you know what to look for and you have bother guidance and support of a team to help you'
though this process.
What I personally like to do, in the spirt of backtesting and forward testing, is give my team members a step-by-step breakdown of what I’m looking for in a “perfecr setup”. I host live training sessions twice a week where I focus just on the breakdown of a great trading set up and how I attacked it. That in itself is a form of back testing. Then when The markets are open I give my team a breakdown in
real-time of what I’m trading, how i’m reading it.
Typically “why” at this point doesn’t matter. The overall point is, back testing is very important. It should be your real first step as a trader.